Dr. Paul Slovic is a professor at the University of Oregon who has written about decision making, human judgement, risk perception, and the limits of human compassion that entails something called psychic numbing that causes us to ignore mass atrocities, among other important aspects of human psychology. He has worked with Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, the two main characters in Michael Lewis’ The Undoing Project.
I was hoping to connect with Mr. Lewis, and here’s my letter to Mr. Slovic:
“Be a nuisance where it counts. Do your part to inform and stimulate the public to join your action. Be depressed, discouraged, and disappointed at failure and the disheartening effects of ignorance, greed, corruption and bad politics—but never give up.” ~ Marjory Stoneman Douglas
Hello Mr. Slovic,
I recently read The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis and am asking for a long shot. I’m guessing that you and he might occasionally keep in touch, or at least you have his contact information. Could I be so bold as to ask you to pass this E-mail on to him? Thank you in advance.
I’m a fish biologist who thinks a lot about psychology and the implications it has on our many environmental quandaries. I didn’t become a biologist until late in life – i.e., my late 30’s when I graduated with an undergraduate degree from the University of Wyoming. I was quite naïve and wanted to “save the fishes”, which I’m passionate about.
Several years later I found myself in central Idaho working for the Forest Service doing “combat biology” because the Chinook salmon had recently been listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. What a rude awakening that was! Sadly, the dwindling Chinook would soon be accompanied by steelhead and bull trout; eventually Chinook were upgraded to endangered status…all of which made the spotted owl issue look like a walk in the park!
I don’t know if you’re familiar with Robert Lackey from Oregon State, but he wrote a provocative article titled Defending Reality that had a huge impact on me (I’ve attached it here in case you’re interested). Between Bob’s article and my contentious experiences with loggers, gold miners, ranchers, fishermen, and fellow Forest Service employees – I realized that not only could I not save the salmon of the Pacific Northwest, but maybe no one could…at least not using the same old approaches. That’s when I started to focus on the psychological underpinnings that lead to our ubiquitous environmental conundrums.
Eventually I left Idaho and went back to Wyoming and worked for the US Fish & Wildlife Service at their fish hatchery in Jackson Hole. One day while cleaning a holding tank full of skittish cutthroat trout fry, someone suggested that I go back to school for a master’s degree. I didn’t see it in the cards, but responded by saying, “If I did, I’d take psychology classes to better understand why people do what they do…or more importantly, why we humans keep doing the harmful things that we do!”
To me, most things are merely a matter of scale. The personal biases and mentalities that I saw at work against the fishes are the same ones that keep Homo sapiens (i.e., “the wise ones”) from solving larger issues like climate change. I contend that the human race, on several fronts, is flirting with calamity like never before if we don’t collectively get in charge of ourselves psychologically – and that’s the theme of the movie I’m pushing.
As noted previously, I’m hoping to somehow get in touch with Mr. Lewis because I’m looking for help with a movie treatment and he likely has contacts with highly talented screenwriters, etc. Please believe me, I’m not in this for fame or fortune; my efforts are for the resources that can’t speak for themselves and future generations that will probably find themselves asking, “How did those past generations get us in the pickle we’re in?”. They might phrase it a little differently, however.
I see this film as a way of conveying the dire state of the environment and the sense of urgency necessary to address mankind’s most pressing matter – in a way the average person can understand…in part because they’ll be able to empathize with the protagonist’s struggle to overcome seemingly insurmountable hurdles in his attempt to make a difference…a difference that no one has been able to make since Rachel Carson.
Sincerely,
Dave Cannon
Aniak, AK
Here’s my letter to Mr. Lewis
Mr. Lewis:
I’m a fish biologist, and like Mr. Morey bringing a different approach to decision making regarding managing a professional basketball team, I have a unique approach – or plan – to getting a vital environmental/ecological message out that involves a full-length feature film that revolves around psychology and the many human foibles most of us exhibit.
The more I read books like yours and reflect back on my experiences, the more they reinforce my vision for a movie highlighting human dysfunction and the need for the human race to get in charge of itself psychologically, individually and collectively, in order to avert widespread ecological and social disruption; and I don’t necessarily exempt myself from that assertion…for you’ve got to know sin to preach against sin.
Like Mr. Morey not being able to penetrate organized sports, I’ve spent the past five or more years trying to penetrate the film industry with virtually no luck…except one year ago I was asked by a wildlife filmmaker to produce a movie treatment; and that, I have found, is no easy task.
Here’s the gist of the film: Much like the unlikelihood of a psychologist getting a Nobel Prize in economics, an unknown and unassuming fish biologist living in remote Alaska is trying to bring psychology and humor into the mix that just might get the average person to never see themselves, or their place in the environment, the same way ever again.
The theme comes down to ten words from your Introduction: the way the human mind worked, or failed to work. Well, it’s mostly about those last three! More pointedly, it comes down to Amos Tversky’s assertion that he and Mr. Kahnemam studied, “natural stupidity instead of artificial intelligence”. I’ve long contended that Homo sapiens, (i.e., “the wise ones”) are not as “wise” or rational as we think we are.
In The Road Less Traveled, a psychiatrist by the name of M. Scott Peck wrote: “Most of us are not so wise. Fearing the pain involved, almost all of us, to a greater or lesser degree, attempt to avoid problems. We procrastinate, hoping that they will go away. We ignore them, forget them, pretend they do not exist……………..The tendency to avoid problems and the emotional suffering inherent in them is the primary basis of all human mental illness. Since most of us have this tendency to a greater or lesser degree, most of us are mentally ill to a greater or lesser degree, lacking complete mental health.” (see the attachment)
In your book you mention uncertainty, and very few professions deal with it as much as fisheries biologists…the confidence interval around a preseason run projection for a river such as the Yukon River is so wide you could navigate the USS Gerald R. Ford thought it. Max Bazerman, a Harvard researcher, studies the many cognitive biases humans exhibit. Regarding my profession, here’s what he said: “Perhaps the most amazing example of judgment problems in our natural resource decision making is fisheries. Here we see the same pattern over and over.”
Unfortunately, when biologists are wrong the implications can be far worse than an NBA team choosing the wrong player in the draft.
Being a fish biologist has given me some unique insights into human nature. One thing I’m certain of, because of the unremitting pressures on the environment and the rapid decline of biological diversity – “the wise ones” will pay the ultimate price. Regarding the impending climate change conundrum, the biggest obstacle scientists face in convincing the public and politicians to act now is the pervasive “present bias”.
However, there’s more to this story that must be told than just that. You note how the vast amount of conventional wisdom is often just bullshit. Well, I tend to agree. I’ll even take it a step further by quoting an excerpt from a psychiatrist in a book about attention deficit disorder: “the sense of growing panic, the feeling that gibberish is being passed off as coherent conversation, the fear that the world is engaged in meaningless discourse masquerading as meaningful exchange— these are the blurry states individuals with ADD negotiate everyday.”
I contend that every day, gibberish is being passed along as coherent conversation and that meaningless discourse is regularly masqueraded as meaningful exchange most everywhere you look…particularly in Washington D.C. (and in regards to climate change denial). Maybe it just takes someone with ADD to realize that, but I’m scared to death for the future of mankind because of the heinous consequences beginning to play out (Alaska is ground zero for climate change implications).
Not to beat around the bush, I need help crafting that movie treatment I’ve been asked to provide. I know I don’t have the talent to do this endeavor justice, mostly because of the complexity of the topic of psychology; as I see it, the structure would flow much like a Robert Altman film (e.g., A Prairie Home Companion). It’s going to take some creative minds to bring this project to fruition. Do you think that Mr. Chervin, Mr. Sorkin, or Mr. Zaillian would be interested in hearing more about this?
How about yourself? Regarding two topics in The Undoing Project, i.e., imagination and uncertainty – my imagination runs wild with endless possibilities. Although this story would be loosely based on my life and my experiences that have definitively demonstrated how dysfunctional the human race can be, it’s not about me, per se…it’s about environmental uncertainty and mankind’s need to be more conservative when harvesting fishes and heeding the data analysis of the majority of climate scientists. To me, most things in life are merely a matter of scale. Consequently, the biologist in me contends that it’s ultimately about the likely frightful future looming down upon mankind unless we, as a species, live up to our name and alter our behaviors.
I’m certain that if you were to write a book about psychology and the environment – with some input from me – that it would be the easiest and most pleasurable project you’ve ever undertaken (I’ve got a plethora of comical anecdotes depicting the human dysfunction you, Messrs. Kahneman & Tversky, Mr. Bazerman, and Mr. Peck have written about).
In making brash statements like that before, people, who unfortunately don’t know me, have misjudged me and my motives and simply blown me off. Again, I’m not in this for me; it’s for the critters that have no voice and for future human generations.
I’ll leave you with this thought that comes from a quote in your book, “A part of good science is to see what everyone else can see but think what no one else has ever said.” My brother once told me, “No one thinks like you do…no one!” For better or for worse, I often see what others don’t, and, more often than not, think differently than most of my colleagues.
I contend, however, that the only thing that will make a real difference is something different!
Happy New Year!
Sincerely
Dave Cannon
Aniak, Alaska 99557
(907) 676-0012